A new Emerson College poll shows a statistical tie between likely voters who favor removing Gov. Gavin Newsom (46%) in the Sep. 14 recall, and those who favor retaining him (48%). The poll, conducted July 30-August 1, has a margin of error of 3%.
Moreover, undecided voters appear to be breaking against the incumbent. In July, 43% favored recalling Newsom, with 48% against it, and 6% of likely voters undecided. Undecided voters have since fallen 3%.
The poll also found that a majority of Hispanic voters favor removing Newsom. Moreover, Republican Larry Elder holds a commanding lead among potential replacements for Newsom.
In a press release, the polling company said:
Education appears to impact voter attitudes toward the recall as respondents without a college degree were more in favor of the recall (54% recall/39% keep) than those with a college degree (36% recall/59% keep).
Hispanics are the only racial group in favor of the recall (54% recall/41% keep), while White respondents were split (48% recall/49% keep). Majorities of Black respondents (41% recall/57% keep) and Asian respondents (30% recall/49% keep) were in favor of keeping Newsom as Governor.
A plurality of voters (40%) are unsure which candidate they will choose for the second ballot question, who should replace Gov. Newsom in the case of his recall. Leading the field of candidates is talk radio host Larry Elder, at 23%. Since July’s poll, Elder has gained seven percentage points. Businessman John Cox and former Olympian and television personality Caitlyn Jenner are both polling at 7%, followed by California State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley at 5%, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer at 4%, and social media influencer Kevin Paffrath at 1%. Thirteen percent (13%) of respondents reported that they plan to vote for someone else.
A plurality (44%) of Republicans and nearly a third (29%) of Independents are planning to vote for Elder. A majority of Trump voters from 2020 (55%) are supporting Elder, while 70% of Biden 2020 voters are either undecided or voting for someone else.
The poll also said that homelessness remained the state’s number-one issue, with concern about crime growing rapidly.
Early voting will begin in mid-August, when the first mail-in ballots will be sent to voters. California is still operating under voting rules from the pandemic, and will send ballots to all registered voters, not just those who request them.
Content created by Joel B. Pollak
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